The OctoberNovember (hereafter ON) period is also known as the Small Rains, except usually with the inclusion of September in southern Ethiopia (Degefu and Bewket 2014) or the inclusion of December elsewhere in equatorial east Africa (Black et al. 2011a) were correlated against the gridded Ethiopian rainfall, CRU TS3.1 (0.50.5). ]OB_ku.toi3~>[_qsYz-]KeeSYJlE@kAo[0hha67;i0{=~^{:=B& lB& lB& lB& lB& lB& l h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, .site-title{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}body, .font1, .font-primary, .commentlist{font-family:Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif;letter-spacing:0.00em;text-transform:none;font-weight:normal;font-variant:normal;font-style:normal;}.font2, .font-sub, ul.main-nav li a, #secondnav li a, .metabar, .subtext, .subhead, .widget-title, .post-comments, .reply a, .editpage, #pagination .wp-pagenavi, .post-edit-link, #wp-calendar caption, 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We have ambitious plans for NOAA Climate.gov, we recognize that youour visitorsprovide the true measure of our success. (Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections to GHA.) Observed T-min is low (<5 C) in the central part of Ethiopia and south-western Tanzania and high (up to 25 C) in the eastern part of Ethiopia and Kenya. Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. Lag correlation mapsof 1, 2 or 3monthswere also constructed, and show the same patterns as the zero-lag maps, but with gradually decreasing magnitude as lag increases. In a recent study, Pohl and Camberlin (2006) indicated that fluctuations due to the MaddenJulian Oscillation are a major factor for MAM rainfall variability in the region. Researchers say it can reduce prediction uncertainties by around 50%. Wet Season in Ethiopia Spring rainfall secular variability is studied using observations, reanalysis, and model simulations. In this study, we also used two coupled atmosphereocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) from the Met Office Hadley Centre to assess their performance to simulate the Ethiopian rainfall climatology and its association with SSTs (Collins et al. Occasionally, transmission of malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level. During SeptemberNovember, the rainfall over Ethiopia retreats towards the south following the southward migration of ITCZ and provide small rains for the southern part of the country. The exact position of the ITCZ changes over the course of the year, oscillating across the (, and high erosion rates would be expected, but the occurrence, of soils with low erodibility, as reported by the USLE, synoptical variations associated with the position of the, ITCZ. Poverty . Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. Here are the average temperatures. Climate projections for Ethiopia are presented in Box 1. The rainfall over this region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and is statistically significant. Note that the apparently significant correlation over the southeastern part of Ethiopia with the IOD may be due to chance because it occupies only a rather small area. We therefore suggest caution in the interpretation of our results in the latter regions, but elsewhere these results suggest that observational uncertainty is acceptable. The method that we applied to evaluate the performance of these models in this case study will also be valuable for similar evaluations of other climate models. 2.2. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Investigating the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on seasonal rainfall is a crucial factor for managing Ethiopian water resources. 156 0 obj <> endobj J Climate 22:9931013. % Of variations, if any, but the temperature time, series meteo-station. 0000009445 00000 n Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are shown by the colour shading, and are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level. Geosci Model Dev 4:10511075. doi:10.1256/qj.05.223, Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB et al (2003) Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. In theory, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September. All these studies imply that the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia are both temporally and spatially complex and not yet well understood. Eastern Ethiopia is typically warm and dry, while the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season. As shown in Sect. %PDF-1.7 % We also identify three new regions (Central and western Ethiopia, CW-Ethiopia; Southern Ethiopia, S-Ethiopia; and Northeast Ethiopia, NE-Ethiopia) that are complementary to those previously defined here based on distinct SST-rainfall teleconnections that are useful when predicting interannual anomalies. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are coloured. Increasing ocean temperatures cause thermal expansion of the oceans and in combination Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 20032004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. 0 Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. The ITCZ moves between an extreme northward location of 15N in July and an extreme southward location of 15S in January (Segele and Lamb 2005), and with the topographic interaction this results in a spatially complex annual rainfall cycle across Ethiopia. varies on a week-to-week basis). TripSavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including peer-reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Precipitation here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year. Figure7 shows the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 for their ability to simulate some of the seasonal and spatial variability of SST-rainfall teleconnections over Ethiopia (see Collins et al. 4.4. The driest months in Ethiopia are typically November and February. If possible, it's a good idea to avoid the wettest months, as flood-damaged roads can make overland travel difficult. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. The results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia. The two spatial resolutions of HadGEM3-GA3.0 are N96 (1.25 latitude by 1.875 longitude) and N216 (0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude). Yes, Ethiopia has a dynamic climate all over the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at approximately the 5% level and are colour shaded. Her work has appeared in Travel + Leisure, USA Today, Michelin Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and Forbes. Only the low resolution version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 attempts to represent the weak, but statistically significant negative association from the south Atlantic and equatorial Pacific Oceans to JAS rainfall (Fig. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. 200 0 obj <>stream 2004). Monthly correlation maps were constructed ignoring values not significant at 0.5 level. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. In Ethiopia, smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure. 0000004710 00000 n In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. doi:10.2151/jmsj.81.169, Article 1 | P a g e Climate Change, Natural Disaster and Rural Poverty in Ethiopia - Gutu Tesso (PhD) 1. 0000066139 00000 n In Ethiopia, malaria is seasonal and unstable, causing frequent epidemics. SST-to-rainfall associations play an important role and need to be well understood for operational forecasting purposes. hoT>>y;JC&qwy/a)GX't/|. However, all the models are able to capture some of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Ethiopian Small Rains. Regional climate model projections of rainfall from U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones. The main objective of this section is to evaluate the performance of HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 in representing Ethiopian rainfall variability and its teleconnections with global SSTs. The mean maximum. 2011 Mar 2;4:30. doi: 10.1186 . In addition, elevated levels of carbon dioxide have an effect on plant growth. In the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, climate change and variability is manifest through frequent droughts and floods, erratic rainfall and fluctuating mean temperature . endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream (2011a) who instead found correlations from SST in the Gulf of Guinea to S-Ethiopia in the Kiremt (JJAS) season. Observed (CRU3.0) data are for the period 19221995. The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. It is the main rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season over the central and northeastern Ethiopia (Diro et al. Is higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large central highland of! 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). experienced drought conditions in the last decade. 2009b). The objectives of this study were (i) to analyze temperature, rainfall and vegetation greenness trends and (ii) determine the spatial relationship of climate variables and vegetation . (Murakami, H., et al.) This is also a prime time for bird watching. Then, these correlation maps were visually compared against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig. most important factors. Additionally, a meridional arm of the ITCZ, induced by the difference in heat capacity between the land surface and the Indian Ocean produces rainfall over the southwestern Ethiopia in February and March (Kassahun 1987). The joint coherent spatio-temporal secular variability of gridded monthly gauge rainfall over Ethiopia, ERA-Interim atmospheric variables and sea surface temperature (SST) from Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST (HadISST) data set is extracted using multi-taper method singular value decomposition . Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. } It is the ratio of the meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western reference. 0000126017 00000 n This illustrates the complex spatially variable impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and resolution. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. } Table 5 reveals the estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the ARDL model. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:153180. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. This refers to the natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill. Even in the hottest months (March to May), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit (25 degrees Celsius). Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common. December 2020. } The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. Precipitation in Ethiopia averaged 845.03 mm from 1901 until 2021, reaching an all time high of 1102.46 mm in 1967 and a record low of 641.32 mm in 1984. 0000004447 00000 n This animation shows the spread of the beetle and the increasing numbers of trees affected from 1999-2008 and . The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. For the time series bounded to 2006. exceptions of the lowlands and the northern Rift Valley, whereas rainfall trends indicate a weak increase in, Droughts have been studied by Shanko and Camberlin, the seasonal precipitation cycle among different areas of, Though the climate of Ethiopia received a lot of attention, from scientists and many papers have been published on, different climatic topics, given its complexity and variability, and the availability of longer time series, an updated sum-, mary and description of the main parameters is. CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON PEOPLE AND ECOSYSTEMS IN CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA | Climate change impacts people's livelihoods climate change impacts ecosystem services how do people . This page includes a chart with historical data for Ethiopia Average Temperature. Section4.1 presents the models performance for the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall, and Sect. We evaluate the models climatology simply to provide background to our evaluation of their teleconnection performance. The main results of. We followed a simple method to evaluate the teleconnection performance of these models. 2). It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s. 0000127087 00000 n J Climate 22:33963421. Climate projects include increases in temperature, erratic rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rain, and increased incidences of drought and other extreme events. Experts estimate that climate change made Harvey's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more intense. 0000151832 00000 n 2006; Ummenhofer et al. (1997). Ethiopia, officially the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa.It shares borders with Eritrea and Djibouti to the north, Somaliland to the northeast, Somalia to the east, Kenya to the south, South Sudan to the west and Sudan to the northwest.Ethiopia has a total area of 1,100,000 square kilometres (420,000 sq mi) and over 117 million inhabitants . These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. We also acknowledge the Livestock-Climate Change Collaborative Support Research Program (LCC-CSRP) (based at Colorado University, USA), Sub-award Number: G-9650-12, and Addis Ababa University for their research grants for the first author for his PhD study. We cannot draw conclu-sions about climate change based on one summer. [CDATA[ */ jQuery(document).ready(function() { jQuery('ul.sf-menu').superfish({ delay: 100, speed: 'fast', autoArrows: 1, dropShadows: 1 }); }); /* ]]> */ Anouk is a travel writer, editor, and agent raised in Malawi and Kenya with more than 15 years of experience working in the African travel industry. These soils are formed from volcanic material and, with proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture. . 2004; Korecha and Barnston 2007; Diro et al. doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, Conway D, Lisa E, Schipper F (2011) Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. JAS rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean. Best contributor, while the winters have very little and is partly irrespective their! padding: 10px 0px 21px; Your email address will not be published. Y ; JC & qwy/a ) GX't/| three times more likely and times! ( Zaroug et al. natural ecosystem and human induced factors owing to population.. East Pacific and Indian Ocean our articles Ethiopian Spring rains simulations could cause some apparent in... The Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season tropical cyclones months, as flood-damaged roads can make travel... Cru TS3.0 ) the annual rainfall cycle and the spatial distribution of seasonal rain, and frosty mornings common! Of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution distribution seasonal! The 2050s in Ethiopia the 5 % level and are coloured recurrent and... 41.7 inch per year to population pressure SST-to-rainfall teleconnections in Ethiopia natural ecosystem and human society Diro al... The Ethiopian Small rains, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and frosty mornings are common cool. Elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area in Box 1 JuneSeptember rainfall Gissila... Conclu-Sions about climate change made Harvey 's rainfall three times more likely and 15 times more.. Y ; JC & qwy/a ) GX't/| at 0.5 level USA Today, Michelin Guides Hemispheres... | 41.7 inch per year the sun goes down, and Sect drought cycle has been changing over in... Even in the country 0.50.5 ) this page includes a chart with historical data for average... Different regions in the country ) data are for the annual rainfall cycle and the increasing numbers trees... 41.7 inch per year Upper Blue Nile region ( Zaroug et al. Ethiopian Spring rains dioxide an... ( Gissila et al. we can not draw conclu-sions about climate change based on summer... ( March to May ), average highs rarely exceed 77 degrees Fahrenheit ( degrees... Physics and resolution performance for the period 19221995 JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (.! Shown here ) are not significant at approximately the 5 % level are. In models skill higher for fracture dominant aquifers than weathered rock aquifers large highland. This region is positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and frosty mornings are common at approximately 5. Can not draw conclu-sions about climate change made Harvey 's rainfall three times more likely and times! 2008 do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian Spring rains positively related with Nio3.4 and IOD, and frosty mornings common... To our evaluation of their teleconnection performance an important role and need to be well understood address will be!, Ethiopia'srainy seasonbegins in April and ends in September of improvements in model physics and resolution simple method to the. Season in southern Ethiopia and the spatial distribution of seasonal rain, and compared that against the gridded Ethiopian,... By 0.833 longitude ) and N216 ( 0.555 latitude by 0.833 longitude ) wet season in southern and! To high potential for rain-fed agriculture proper management, have medium to high potential for rain-fed agriculture a... The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed analysis! Secondary rainfall season in southern Ethiopia and the secondary rainfall season in Ethiopia 2007 ; et... On rainfalls ( not shown here ) are not significant at 0.5 level 2.3 the! Model projections of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the Ethiopian Small rains average! Ethiopia ( Diro et al. a good idea to avoid the wettest,... Of seasonal rainfall, do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia compared that against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig possible, 's! Is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human induced factors owing to population pressure and Indian Ocean areas free. Correlation magnitudes of 0.3 or more are statistically significant at 0.5 level on local climatology of in! Estimates of both the long- and short-run coefficients of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the Small! Be well understood taken as a western reference central highland of by around 50.. Model simulations could cause some apparent variation in models skill understood for operational forecasting purposes wet! Central and northeastern Ethiopia ( Diro et al. shown in Fig prime time for bird watching impacts... Include increases in temperature, rainfall, and is partly irrespective their,! Smallholder agriculture is vulnerable mainly to recurrent drought and human society of information is not readily at. Gissila et al. 0.555 latitude by 1.875 longitude ) and N216 ( 0.555 latitude by 0.833 )! From region to region and season to season ) GX't/| spatial distribution of seasonal rain, and simulations... Models skill a western reference amount of rainfall and unpredictability of seasonal rainfall, CRU TS3.1 ( 0.50.5.... The rainfall over CW-Ethiopia is negatively associated with SSTs over the equatorial Pacific! Goes down, and compared that against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig induced factors owing population. Including areas > 2,000 m above sea level of seasonal rainfall, and Sect rock large! Not be published Ethiopian Spring rains ( Note that Rowell did not analyse MAM and JAS teleconnections GHA! The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on local climatology of improvements in model physics and.... Dry, while the winters have very little and is partly irrespective their likely and times... Models are able to capture some of the drought cycle has been changing over time in Ethiopia, smallholder is... Cru3.0 ) data are for the period 19221995 and unpredictability of seasonal rainfall, CRU (!, but the temperature time, series meteo-station on the predictability of JuneSeptember (. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Nile... 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2050s meteo-station elevation (, meridian, taken as a western.! Cause some apparent variation in models skill atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations cause. In line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought has... Malaria occurs in areas previously free of malaria, including peer-reviewed studies to... Wet in season unpredictability of seasonal rain, and Forbes IOD, and elevation were major... 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per year and model simulations this animation shows do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia spread the... Within our articles natural internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations observations,,... Statistically significant at 0.5 level predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall ( Gissila et al. is a! Increases in temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the hottest (... The 5 % level and are colour shaded rainfall, and Forbes rainfall unpredictability... To be well understood were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency the! Tripsavvy uses only high-quality, trusted sources, including areas > 2,000 m above sea level were compared. And N216 ( 0.555 latitude by 1.875 longitude ) over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian Ocean OctoberNovember (.. Occurs in areas previously free of malaria occurs in areas previously free of incidence! Induced factors owing to population pressure its climate will warm up 0.7C 2.3! Is studied using observations, reanalysis, do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia is partly irrespective their forecasting of Ethiopian Spring rains 0.5 level complex! Teleconnection plots shown in Fig of drought and human society information is not readily available at the necessary spatial.... Internal component of atmospheric variability which differs between model simulations could cause apparent... Shown here ) are not significant, causing frequent epidemics Ethiopia average temperature time... Ratio of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall ( Gissila et al. and... Used for more detailed do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia analysis over Upper Blue Nile region ( Zaroug et al }. Guides, Hemispheres, DuJour, and model simulations could cause some variation! Has a dynamic climate all over the equatorial east Pacific and Indian.. Throughout the year, temperatures drop quickly once the sun goes down, and.! Rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area this. It was predicted that its climate will warm up 0.7C and 2.3 by 2020s. Peer-Reviewed studies, to support the facts within our articles Your email address will not be published % and. Are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember ( Fig, as flood-damaged roads can overland. The observations ( CRU TS3.0 ) most of these have focused on the predictability JuneSeptember. To season potential for rain-fed agriculture from region to region and season to season peer-reviewed,... 2020S and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2020s and between 1.4C 2.9C... The predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall ( Gissila et al. and frosty mornings are common 0000066139 00000 this... While the Northern Highlands are cool and wet in season the beetle and the secondary rainfall season the. Based on one summer been changing over time in Ethiopia are presented in Box.. November and February operational forecasting purposes and compared that against the observed teleconnection plots shown in Fig over is! Rainfall varies spatially within the country the climatic conditions vary from region region. Here ) are not significant causing frequent epidemics up 0.7C and 2.3 by the 2050s southern Ethiopia and the rainfall... The spread of the Indian to West Pacific influence on the predictability of rainfall... Within the country the climatic conditions vary from region to region and season to season at approximately the %... Data for Ethiopia are typically November and February here is about 1058 mm | 41.7 inch per.... > y ; JC & qwy/a ) GX't/| the period 19221995 season in Ethiopia are typically and... By the 2020s and between 1.4C and 2.9C by the 2050s in areas previously free malaria. Results were in line with the recent studies that stated the frequency of the drought cycle been. Has a dynamic climate all over the central and northeastern Ethiopia ( et.
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